Global longs market enters holiday season, but deep uncertainties lie ahead next year

The global long steel products market has mostly entered the holiday period. In many markets, business will start moving only after January 13. Many uncertain factors lie ahead for the post-holiday period, including the situation regarding Chinese exports, the actions likely to be taken by the new US administration and the difficulties faced by the steel industry in Europe.

Chinese stimulus measures so far not expected to have huge impact on exports

In the short term, the Asian markets are speculating on the positive sentiment from China, but it is hard to see how it will convert into real upward movement. It seems the Chinese government is going to make another attempt to increase liquidity to stimulate domestic demand. However, domestic prices are still very low in China and so the potential short-term impact on exporters will probably be limited and they will not change current export volumes until the Chinese steel industry slows down production. However, Chinese Premier Xi Jinping has pledged that China will meet its ambitious GDP growth target of five percent this year and remain the engine of global economic expansion, and so no production cuts would be anticipated. As a result, steel prices in the international markets, except in the US, will suffer going forward.

What are the prospects for Chinese steel exports in Q1?

The important sectors in the Chinese domestic economy, steel in general, and construction and manufacturing, are all in deflationary mode. Steel exports from China have increased during the fourth quarter. It is yet to be seen if Chinese exporters have already booked export orders for the first quarter. They may not have full export order books as demand and prices from overseas customers have fallen further and quantities are less.

Energy prices in Europe surge to 2022 levels, mills announce shutdowns

In the meantime, energy prices have surged to very high levels again in Europe, levels not seen since 2022, and mills in the region have started announcing shutdowns. Usually, this would push prices up but in the current low season we have to wait and see what happens.

Weak demand in Europe, luckily prices have not fallen even further

The market in Europe is still extremely challenging. Domestic producers are holding prices low to fight against imports and to collect any orders they can. But there is no way for them to reduce their prices further as their costs simply do not allow that. Demand is very weak. Many benders are still accepting long-term projects at price levels which do not correspond to current replacement costs. Mills are taking measures to reduce offers by working shorter hours or stopping liquid steel production for a few months. Nevertheless, it is a good sign that prices have not slid down any further despite the approach of the end of the year.

New US administration may trigger even greater difficulties for global long steel trade

Trade in the global long steel products market may enter a period of even greater difficulties with the change in the US administration. Proposed additional duties may trigger other countries to retaliate and it may soon become more difficult to trade globally.

Difficult winter anticipated for US domestic steel market

US domestic mills have been keeping prices low and are still offering discounts on already low prices. In addition, most US buyers, not trusting import price guarantees, refrain from ordering their usual quantities. Interest rates have eased a bit, but are still on the high side for investments. In short, a not so pleasant winter is expected in the US steel market. On the other hand, US domestic scrap pricing for December is expected to be down, for the first time in two decades.

Market is unstable with difficult and unpredictable outlook

Under these circumstances, the situation in the global longs market, where competition remains very tough and more local than global, may be described as unstable and complicated with a difficult unpredictable outlook.

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